Econometrics for Policy Research II

Readings

Outline is preliminary and subject to change.
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  1. Causation and Regression Review
    • MM, Chapters 1 and 2
    • Causation handout
    • Supplemental
      • Helpful overview: Imbens and Wooldridge, 2009. “Econometrics of Program Evaluation,” Journal of Economic Literature. [link]
      • Example of controlling for observables: Brooks et al, “The Cabals of a Few or the Confusion of a Multitude” American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 2011. [link]
      • Unit of observation discussion by Social Security
  2. Fixed Effects
    • MM, Chapter 2, cont'd
    • Black, Sandra et al., 2005. “The More the Merrier? The Effect of Family Size and Birth Order on Childrens' Education” [link]
      • skip III.D.-III.G., and sections V & VI
  3. Differences-in-differences
    • MM, Chapter 5
    • Autor, David et al, “The Impact of Disability Benefits on Labor Supply: Evidence from the VA's Disability Compensation Program,” Working paper 2015. [link]
      • Skim section 5
  4. Differences-in-difference extensions
    • Milligan, Kevin. “Subsidizing the Stork: New Evidence on Tax Incentives and Fertility” Review of Economics and Statistics, 2005. [link]
      • Skip Section 5
    • Bertrand et al. “How Much Should We Trust Differences-in-differences Estimates?” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2004. [link]
      • Skim Section 4, with the exception of 4C, which you should read carefully
  5. Instrumental Variables I
    • MM, Chapter 3
    • Angrist and Kreuger, “Does Compulsory School Attendance Affect Schooling and Earnings?”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1991. [link]
      • Section II.C is optional
  6. Instrumental Variables II
    • split the class between
      • Collins and Margo, “The Economic Aftermath of the 1960s Riots in American Cities: Evidence from Property Values”, Journal of Economic History. 2007. [link]
      • Nguyen, Luu, “Are Credit Markets Still Local? Evidence from Bank Branch Closings” working paper, 2017. [link]
    • Supplemental
      • Bound, Baker and Jaeger, “Problems with Instrumental Variables Estimation When the Correlation Between the Instruments and the Endogeneous Explanatory Variable is Weak,” Journal of the American Statistical Association, 1995. [link]
      • An entertaining lament from David Jaeger on the fate of this critique
  7. Regression Discontinuity I
    • MM, Chapter 4
    • Anderson, Michael L., “Subways, Strikes and Slowdowns: The Impacts of Public Transit on Traffic Congestion” American Economic Review, 2014. [link]
      • Focus on Section 3, which what we will discuss in class
    • Supplemental
      • Lee and Lemiuex, “Regression Discontinuity Designs in Economics,” NBER Working Paper 14723, 2009. [link]
  8. Regression Discontinuity II
    • Manoli and Turner, “Cash-on-Hand and College Enrollment: Evidence from Population Tax Data and the Earned Income Tax Credit” [link]
      • Read through Section 3.3; skim 3.4
    • discuss fuzzy RD, RD kink
  9. Matching I
    • Todd, Petra, “A Practical Guide to Implementing Matching Estimators,” Unpublished notes, 1999. [link]
    • Brooks, Leah, “Volunteering to be Taxed: Business Improvement Districts and the Provision of Public Safety,” Journal of Public Economics 2008. [link]
      • Ignore Section 6
  10. Matching II: Synthetic Controls and Paper Workshop
    • This class will be online. WebEx link coming via Piazza.
    • Lecture notes here
    • Split class between
      • Abadie, Diamond and Hainmueller, “Comparative Politics and the Synthetic Control Method,” American Journal of Political Science, 2015.[link]
      • Pac et al, “Paid Family Leave and Breastfeeding: Evidence from California”, NBER Working Paper 25784, 2019.[link]
  11. No lecture. Student Presentations
    • Class canceled. No presentations. Syllabus weight of presentations goes to paper workshop.
    • Please feel free to book me for consultations during this time. Use the scheduler here.
    • Syllabus weight of presentations goes to paper workshop.
    • Students: Jingwen, Leslie, Jason, Genevieve, Ruairi, Alysha, Madison
  12. Paper Workshop Student Presentations
    • Full draft of paper required.
    • See instructions on handout tab.
    • Please sign up so I can drop in on your group at the time on this sheet. Tell me how to contact you. /li>
    • Students: Madison, Matthew, Tom, Kara, Stephanie, Vernicia, Emma
  13. Student Consultations in Lieu of Class
    • Schedule: April 7, April 9 and April 10. Sign up here.
    • Please feel free to book me for consultations during this time. Use the scheduler here.
  14. Structural Estimation
    • Lecture Notes
    • Lecture links by email. No reading required.
    • Readings referenced in the lecture
      • Taylor, Lucian “ Why are CEOs rarely fired?” Journal of Finance, 2010. [link]
      • Wiswall, Matthew. “ Liscensing and Occupational Sorting in the Market for Teachers ”, Working paper, 2010. [link]
      • Alvin Murphy, Sebastian Galiani, and Juan Pantano. “Estimating Neighborhood Choice Models: Lessons from a Housing Assistance Experiment”, American Economic Review, vol. 105, no. 11, November 2015. [link]